I am a sixth year PhD candidate in the Department of Economics at the University of Virginia. My research focuses on the economics of privacy and information, with a particular interest in cybercrime. I will be graduating in May 2025 and am on the 2024-2025 job market. My CV can be found here.
Occasionally (seldomly), I'll write about projects I'm working on and you can find my most recent posts below. I recently open sourced Satchel, my MLB projection model, and you can find those projections here.
Recent Posts
Can We Get the 2022 Angels to the Postseason?
To date, the best thing about the Angels' year has been their City Connect jerseys.
Despite having two of the best players in baseball in Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani,
they are 10.5 games out of the Wild Card race, and 20.5 in the division. In an
effort to see if their season was truly lost, I set out to find a series of trades
that would give them at least a 50% chance of making the postseason according
to Satchel, my MLB projections model.
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Satchel Season in Review - 2021
As everyone knows, the best time to write about modeling the MLB season is during a lockout, so here is the very belated Satchel 2021 season autopsy. There were some great predictions, and some very big misses, but overall, I'd say Satchel held its own. I compare Satchel with the projections published by FanGraphs before the season started since all of the underlying data comes from FanGraphs.
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2021 MLB Season Projections
I'll leave the detailed commentary to the professionals, but with opening day just around the corner, here's how my model (henceforth known as Satchel) has the 2021 MLB season playing out.1 For an overview of how the model works, check out my earlier post. I'll also talk about how the model has changed since I first introduced it at the end of this post.
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