MLB Projections

My MLB projections are generated using the Satchel projection model. I wrote a brief description of how the model works in an earlier post, and it has since grown into a more substantive project. The source code is available on my GitHub.

These projections are updated automatically every morning during the season around 10AM Eastern. The "Season Percentile" column grades how the team is projected to finish (in terms of total wins) relative to their opening day projections. A team that's roughly meeting expectations will have a percentile around 50. Those that dramatically over or underperform will have scores significantly higher and lower than 50, respectively.

To Date RoS Projections
Team W L W L W L Make Wild Card (%) Win Division (%) Make Playoffs (%) Win League (%) Win WS (%) Season Percentile
MIL 96 58 4 4 100 62 0 100 100 13.58 6.47 97.21
LAD 94 60 5 3 99 63 0 100 100 44.87 30.82 46.62
TBR 93 60 4 5 97 65 18.82 81.19 100 18.37 6.40 95.53
ATL 90 64 5 3 95 67 1.29 98.71 100 8.57 4.42 76.63
NYY 89 64 5 4 94 68 81.19 18.82 100 23.29 11.19 70.25
CHC 85 69 5 3 90 72 99.53 0 99.53 13.42 7.97 62.37
SDP 85 69 4 4 89 73 96.23 0 96.23 8.68 4.75 72.45
PHI 85 69 4 4 89 73 98.06 1.29 99.35 10.50 6 46.16
BOS 84 70 4 4 88 74 100 0 100 14.57 6.03 52.19
ARI 80 74 4 4 84 78 4.88 0 4.88 0.39 0.27 64.23
CLE 79 75 4 4 83 79 21.49 64.05 85.54 14.53 4.90 73.02
CHW 78 76 4 4 82 80 34.16 35.84 69.99 6.46 1.76 90.48
HOU 77 77 4 4 81 81 5.63 56.78 62.41 9.70 3.75 40.51
TEX 77 77 4 4 81 81 6.10 41.92 48.02 6.78 2.48 46.30
PIT 77 77 4 4 81 81 0 0 0 0 0 54.74
TOR 76 78 4 4 80 82 25.92 0 25.92 4.89 2.17 17.50
BAL 75 79 4 4 79 83 5.92 0 5.92 0.95 0.41 22.77
STL 75 79 4 4 79 83 0 0 0 0 0 68.88
MIA 76 78 3 5 79 83 0 0 0 0 0 73.65
SEA 72 82 5 3 77 85 0.10 1.29 1.40 0.35 0.16 10.10
DET 73 81 4 4 77 85 0.64 0.11 0.75 0.11 0.05 14.18
MIN 72 82 4 4 76 86 0.04 0 0.04 0.01 0.01 38.08
WSN 72 82 3 5 75 87 0 0 0 0 0 79.82
CIN 72 82 3 5 75 87 0 0 0 0 0 41.66
NYM 70 84 4 4 74 88 0 0 0 0 0 5.56
KCR 67 87 4 4 71 91 0 0 0 0 0 15.62
SFG 64 90 3 5 67 95 0 0 0 0 0 7.94
ATH 61 93 4 4 65 97 0 0 0 0 0 7.61
LAA 59 95 3 5 62 100 0 0 0 0 0 19.37
COL 56 98 3 5 59 103 0 0 0 0 0 30.78
Last Updated: September 19, 2026

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