MLB Projections

My MLB projections are generated using the Satchel projection model. I wrote a brief description of how the model works in an earlier post, and it has since grown into a more substantive project. The source code is available on my GitHub.

These projections are updated automatically every morning during the season around 10AM Eastern. The "Season Percentile" column grades how the team is projected to finish (in terms of total wins) relative to their opening day projections. A team that's roughly meeting expectations will have a percentile around 50. Those that dramatically over or underperform will have scores significantly higher and lower than 50, respectively.

To Date RoS Projections
Team W L W L W L Make Wild Card (%) Win Division (%) Make Playoffs (%) Win League (%) Win WS (%) Season Percentile
LAD 63 37 37 25 100 62 1.11 98.80 99.91 37.10 21.63 50.26
MIL 62 37 31 32 93 69 35 59.77 94.77 10.33 4.24 88.47
ATL 57 41 34 30 91 71 29.43 61.76 91.19 14.30 7.06 62.33
CHC 56 43 34 29 90 72 51.64 35.84 87.48 13.49 6.95 62.37
NYY 55 44 35 28 90 72 39.97 51.49 91.45 20.66 10.44 55.40
PHI 55 45 34 28 89 73 45.46 35.75 81.21 11.97 6.17 46.16
TBR 56 42 31 33 87 75 52.63 25.74 78.36 8.18 3.35 76.09
BOS 50 48 34 30 84 78 49.62 13.54 63.16 11.51 5.75 36.41
SEA 50 50 34 28 84 78 18.62 47.83 66.45 15.28 8.08 28.61
CLE 52 48 32 30 84 78 12.91 50.60 63.51 8.57 3.45 76.29
SDP 49 50 34 29 83 79 37.28 0.67 37.95 4.58 2.30 50.31
TEX 50 49 33 30 83 79 19.02 42.27 61.30 10.35 4.87 54.24
ARI 51 48 31 32 82 80 29.38 0.53 29.92 2.40 1.05 56.73
PIT 52 48 30 32 82 80 26.16 2.71 28.87 2.24 1 58.49
BAL 49 51 32 30 81 81 33.80 5.50 39.30 6.19 3 29.20
STL 51 47 30 34 81 81 19.60 1.51 21.11 1.32 0.56 75.46
TOR 46 53 34 29 80 82 28.55 3.74 32.30 6.70 3.47 17.50
MIA 52 48 27 35 79 83 11.82 1.64 13.45 0.73 0.32 73.65
DET 46 53 33 30 79 83 12.03 18.72 30.75 5.05 2.51 19.09
CHW 52 46 27 37 79 83 11.26 15.98 27.25 1.65 0.48 84.50
MIN 49 51 29 33 78 84 9.25 13.34 22.59 2.40 1 45.79
HOU 47 54 31 30 78 84 9.93 8.92 18.86 2.80 1.23 29.52
WSN 50 50 26 36 76 86 4.25 0.52 4.77 0.24 0.08 82.47
CIN 45 53 31 33 76 86 5.05 0.18 5.24 0.60 0.32 45.70
NYM 42 58 33 29 75 87 3.18 0.34 3.52 0.65 0.35 6.80
KCR 40 60 32 30 72 90 1.21 1.35 2.56 0.41 0.24 18.19
ATH 42 57 29 34 71 91 1.11 0.91 2.02 0.25 0.09 20.86
SFG 42 57 29 34 71 91 0.62 0 0.62 0.04 0.03 15.72
LAA 39 61 27 35 66 96 0.08 0.07 0.14 0.02 0.01 31.95
COL 40 61 24 37 64 98 0.01 0 0.01 0 0 50.76
Last Updated: July 20, 2026

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