MLB Projections

My MLB projections are generated using the Satchel projection model. I wrote a brief description of how the model works in an earlier post, and it has since grown into a more substantive project. The source code is available on my GitHub.

These projections are updated automatically every morning during the season around 10AM Eastern. The "Season Percentile" column grades how the team is projected to finish (in terms of total wins) relative to their opening day projections. A team that's roughly meeting expectations will have a percentile around 50. Those that dramatically over or underperform will have scores significantly higher and lower than 50, respectively.

To Date RoS Projections
Team W L W L W L Make Wild Card (%) Win Division (%) Make Playoffs (%) Win League (%) Win WS (%) Season Percentile
LAD 51 31 47 33 98 64 11.85 86.21 98.06 30.95 18.27 55.63
NYM 48 34 44 36 92 70 35.44 51.04 86.48 16.43 8.48 61.98
PHI 47 34 44 37 91 71 37.52 44.24 81.76 14.57 7.83 56.09
DET 51 31 40 40 91 71 14.21 71.29 85.50 11.26 4.50 81.58
HOU 48 33 42 39 90 72 22.45 60.78 83.23 14.35 6.72 65.56
CHC 48 33 42 38 90 71 21.66 52.79 74.44 9.54 4.57 68.31
NYY 46 34 44 38 90 72 36.70 46.08 82.78 17.72 8.67 57.80
TBR 46 35 41 40 87 75 41.55 23.48 65.03 8.52 3.58 70.95
TOR 43 37 43 38 86 75 40.79 24.12 64.91 11.55 5.73 52.15
SDP 44 36 41 41 85 77 42.59 5.70 48.29 4.54 2.13 58.70
SEA 41 39 44 38 85 77 32.12 23.17 55.28 10.27 4.98 45.38
MIL 45 36 40 40 85 76 23.39 21.88 45.28 4.79 2.19 66.98
ARI 41 39 43 39 84 78 33.55 3.44 36.98 4.62 2.36 48.06
STL 44 38 40 40 84 78 22.55 17.91 40.47 3.40 1.45 67.85
SFG 44 37 40 41 84 78 35.74 4.66 40.39 3.81 1.77 64.18
MIN 39 42 44 36 83 78 21.73 15.96 37.69 7.28 3.55 35.12
TEX 40 41 42 39 82 80 22.29 11.31 33.60 5.49 2.59 30.77
ATL 37 43 45 35 82 78 22.54 4.70 27.23 5.48 3.36 12.73
BOS 40 42 41 39 81 81 20.71 5.05 25.75 3.96 1.96 41.85
CIN 42 39 39 42 81 81 12.52 7.29 19.80 1.77 0.82 60.49
CLE 40 39 41 41 81 80 18.95 9.02 27.96 3.89 1.70 49.54
KCR 38 43 40 41 78 84 9.12 3.74 12.86 1.75 0.77 38.85
LAA 40 40 38 44 78 84 10.98 4.62 15.61 1.79 0.75 59.22
BAL 34 46 43 38 77 84 8.04 1.27 9.31 2.10 1.20 14.36
ATH 33 50 36 43 69 93 0.39 0.10 0.50 0.08 0.02 28.34
PIT 32 50 37 43 69 93 0.33 0.13 0.46 0.07 0.03 25.25
WSN 33 48 35 45 68 93 0.21 0.01 0.21 0.03 0.02 40.96
MIA 34 45 33 49 67 94 0.13 0.01 0.14 0 0 49.04
CHW 26 55 32 49 58 104 0 0 0 0 0 25.84
COL 18 63 31 50 49 113 0 0 0 0 0 8.67
Last Updated: June 27, 2025

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