MLB Projections

My MLB projections are generated using the Satchel projection model. I wrote a brief description of how the model works in an earlier post, and it has since grown into a more substantive project. The source code is available on my GitHub.

These projections are updated automatically every morning during the season around 10AM Eastern. The "Season Percentile" column grades how the team is projected to finish (in terms of total wins) relative to their opening day projections. A team that's roughly meeting expectations will have a percentile around 50. Those that dramatically over or underperform will have scores significantly higher and lower than 50, respectively.

To Date RoS Projections
Team W L W L W L Make Wild Card (%) Win Division (%) Make Playoffs (%) Win League (%) Win WS (%) Season Percentile
LAD 20 9 79 54 99 63 20.32 75.66 95.97 31.54 18.48 46.62
NYY 19 10 73 60 92 70 33.62 49.23 82.86 18.52 9.59 63.29
ATL 20 9 71 62 91 71 17.77 60.83 78.61 14.39 7 62.33
SDP 19 9 69 65 88 74 49.43 14.80 64.23 7.80 3.81 68.95
CHC 17 12 70 63 87 75 23.66 39.50 63.16 9.25 4.32 50.18
SEA 14 16 73 59 87 75 21.95 44.21 66.17 14.56 7.56 39.68
DET 15 14 70 63 85 77 13.54 44.16 57.70 9.08 4.25 38.80
TOR 12 16 72 62 84 78 36.05 15.65 51.70 10.05 5.25 29.77
CIN 18 10 65 69 83 79 20.72 20.46 41.18 4.13 1.62 72.42
TEX 14 15 69 64 83 79 22.92 26.75 49.67 7.92 3.81 54.24
ARI 15 12 68 67 83 79 36.39 6.31 42.71 4.15 1.84 60.50
BOS 12 17 71 62 83 79 34.88 12.68 47.56 8.73 4.41 32.84
NYM 9 19 73 61 82 80 22.48 18.71 41.19 7.84 4.20 21.08
BAL 13 15 69 65 82 80 31.99 11.89 43.88 7.05 3.48 32.66
MIL 14 13 68 67 82 80 20.26 18.45 38.70 4.95 2.32 52.98
PHI 9 19 73 61 82 80 22.41 16.28 38.68 6.98 3.71 21.99
TBR 17 11 65 69 82 80 30.48 10.55 41.03 4.93 2.05 58.79
PIT 16 13 65 68 81 81 19.86 15.62 35.49 3.79 1.75 54.74
ATH 15 13 65 69 80 82 19.02 16.41 35.43 3.98 1.62 52.87
SFG 13 15 67 67 80 82 26.30 3.16 29.46 2.72 1.23 45.01
KCR 11 17 68 66 79 83 12.21 18.90 31.11 4.30 2.10 41.80
MIN 13 16 66 67 79 83 12.38 18.38 30.75 3.50 1.43 49.52
CLE 15 15 63 69 78 84 11.23 16.48 27.71 2.90 1.17 54.51
HOU 11 18 67 66 78 84 14.74 11 25.74 3.86 1.80 29.52
STL 15 13 61 73 76 86 10.11 5.98 16.09 1.26 0.48 57.57
MIA 13 16 60 73 73 89 6.98 3.32 10.30 0.94 0.40 51.36
LAA 12 18 57 75 69 93 3.28 1.64 4.91 0.36 0.14 43.32
WSN 13 16 55 78 68 94 2.35 0.86 3.22 0.19 0.08 55.21
CHW 12 17 56 77 68 94 1.71 2.08 3.80 0.26 0.07 46.23
COL 13 16 52 81 65 97 0.94 0.06 1 0.06 0.03 54.76
Last Updated: April 28, 2026

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