MLB Projections

My MLB projections are generated using the Satchel projection model. I wrote a brief description of how the model works in an earlier post, and it has since grown into a more substantive project. The source code is available on my GitHub.

These projections are updated automatically every morning during the season around 10AM Eastern. The "Season Percentile" column grades how the team is projected to finish (in terms of total wins) relative to their opening day projections. A team that's roughly meeting expectations will have a percentile around 50. Those that dramatically over or underperform will have scores significantly higher and lower than 50, respectively.

To Date RoS Projections
Team W L W L W L Make Wild Card (%) Win Division (%) Make Playoffs (%) Win League (%) Win WS (%) Season Percentile
LAD 81 55 18 8 99 63 0.47 99.53 100 43.62 29.98 46.62
MIL 85 51 13 13 98 64 12.61 87.39 100 11.96 5.92 95.47
ATL 81 55 14 12 95 67 20.32 79.42 99.74 10.75 5.45 76.63
TBR 81 54 13 14 94 68 39.34 60.66 100 14.74 5.21 92.12
NYY 77 59 15 11 92 70 65.23 34.66 99.89 23.52 10.46 63.29
CHC 77 59 15 11 92 70 85.29 12.62 97.91 14.29 8.38 69.66
PHI 76 60 14 12 90 72 72.95 20.57 93.53 10.12 5.54 50.14
BOS 74 62 14 12 88 74 91.64 4.67 96.31 14.39 5.79 52.19
SDP 72 64 15 11 87 75 65.47 0.43 65.90 6.39 3.41 65.31
ARI 73 65 12 12 85 77 39.07 0.04 39.12 2.65 1.28 67.84
CHW 72 63 13 14 85 77 9.57 73.27 82.84 7.08 1.98 94.58
TOR 67 70 14 11 81 81 38.73 0 38.73 8.89 4.04 20.01
CLE 68 68 13 13 81 81 18.96 20.78 39.74 6.55 2.46 66.22
HOU 68 68 13 13 81 81 4 52.34 56.34 8.71 3.26 40.51
STL 68 69 12 13 80 82 1.55 0 1.55 0.10 0.03 72.27
BAL 67 69 12 14 79 83 18.12 0.01 18.13 2.59 0.98 22.77
TEX 66 70 13 13 79 83 3.60 19.07 22.66 3.67 1.44 38.61
SEA 64 72 15 11 79 83 3.84 28.59 32.44 7.70 3.51 14.20
PIT 66 71 13 12 79 83 0.97 0 0.97 0.06 0.03 46.83
MIA 68 68 10 16 78 84 1.20 0 1.20 0.07 0.03 70.62
MIN 64 72 14 12 78 84 4.10 3.71 7.80 1.38 0.53 45.79
DET 63 72 13 14 76 86 2.41 2.03 4.44 0.63 0.21 12.17
CIN 64 72 11 15 75 87 0.04 0 0.04 0.01 0.01 41.66
NYM 61 75 13 13 74 88 0.01 0 0.01 0 0 5.56
WSN 65 73 9 15 74 88 0.03 0 0.03 0 0 77.09
KCR 62 75 12 13 74 88 0.46 0.21 0.68 0.13 0.07 23.98
SFG 56 81 10 15 66 96 0 0 0 0 0 6.69
ATH 53 83 12 14 65 97 0 0 0 0 0 7.61
LAA 52 84 10 16 62 100 0 0 0 0 0 19.37
COL 52 84 10 16 62 100 0 0 0 0 0 42.37
Last Updated: August 30, 2026

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