MLB Projections

My MLB projections are generated using the Satchel projection model. I wrote a brief description of how the model works in an earlier post, and it has since grown into a more substantive project. The source code is available on my GitHub.

These projections are updated automatically every morning during the season around 10AM Eastern. The "Season Percentile" column grades how the team is projected to finish (in terms of total wins) relative to their opening day projections. A team that's roughly meeting expectations will have a percentile around 50. Those that dramatically over or underperform will have scores significantly higher and lower than 50, respectively.

To Date RoS Projections
Team W L W L W L Make Wild Card (%) Win Division (%) Make Playoffs (%) Win League (%) Win WS (%) Season Percentile
LAD 66 49 28 18 94 67 28.50 68.66 97.17 25.64 14.16 39.34
MIL 70 44 23 23 93 67 35.08 60.37 95.44 8.57 3.45 89.16
TOR 68 48 24 21 92 69 32.66 62.83 95.49 14.74 6.62 74.17
PHI 65 49 27 20 92 69 27.94 66.12 94.06 18.35 9.68 60.05
CHC 66 48 25 21 91 69 53.99 37.33 91.32 11.82 5.51 71.90
HOU 64 51 26 20 90 71 34.01 50.83 84.84 18.55 9.50 65.56
SDP 64 51 26 20 90 71 58.20 30.14 88.35 14.37 7.43 76.48
NYM 63 52 26 20 89 72 50.68 33.81 84.49 16.52 9.29 49.80
DET 66 50 23 22 89 72 6.76 80.94 87.70 11.06 4.62 75.90
NYY 61 54 27 19 88 73 57.82 19.11 76.93 15.43 8.17 49.76
SEA 63 53 25 20 88 73 43.02 37.54 80.55 16.89 8.80 57.31
BOS 64 52 24 21 88 73 55.39 17.71 73.11 9.90 4.37 68.62
TEX 60 56 24 21 84 77 33.73 11.24 44.96 6.77 3.36 37.95
CIN 60 56 22 23 82 79 20.09 1.71 21.80 2.46 1.17 64.34
CLE 59 55 23 23 82 78 14.12 9.15 23.28 2.50 0.97 53.33
KCR 57 58 24 22 81 80 10.52 8.71 19.23 2.56 1.17 50.73
SFG 58 57 22 24 80 81 13.82 1.14 14.95 1.32 0.62 48.49
STL 58 58 21 24 79 82 9.56 0.59 10.15 0.68 0.27 49.43
TBR 57 59 21 24 78 83 7.16 0.33 7.48 0.70 0.29 36.61
LAA 55 60 21 25 76 85 2.35 0.40 2.74 0.38 0.15 50.95
ARI 54 61 22 24 76 85 1.31 0.06 1.36 0.16 0.08 19.50
MIN 54 60 22 24 76 84 2 1.20 3.19 0.46 0.18 13.95
BAL 52 63 22 24 74 87 0.45 0.01 0.46 0.07 0.04 8.66
MIA 56 58 18 28 74 86 0.50 0.06 0.56 0.03 0.02 74.88
ATL 48 66 26 19 74 85 0.29 0.01 0.29 0.08 0.07 2.56
PIT 50 66 20 25 70 91 0.04 0 0.04 0.01 0.01 28.52
ATH 51 66 19 25 70 91 0.03 0 0.03 0.01 0.01 31.86
WSN 45 69 19 27 64 96 0 0 0 0 0 25.94
CHW 42 73 18 28 60 101 0 0 0 0 0 33.23
COL 30 84 17 30 47 114 0 0 0 0 0 5.64
Last Updated: August 09, 2025

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