MLB Projections

My MLB projections are generated using the Satchel projection model. I wrote a brief description of how the model works in an earlier post, and it has since grown into a more substantive project. The source code is available on my GitHub.

These projections are updated automatically every morning during the season around 10AM Eastern. The "Season Percentile" column grades how the team is projected to finish (in terms of total wins) relative to their opening day projections. A team that's roughly meeting expectations will have a percentile around 50. Those that dramatically over or underperform will have scores significantly higher and lower than 50, respectively.

To Date RoS Projections
Team W L W L W L Make Wild Card (%) Win Division (%) Make Playoffs (%) Win League (%) Win WS (%) Season Percentile
LAD 70 48 30 14 100 62 1.53 98.41 99.94 43.43 29.73 50.26
MIL 74 44 22 22 96 66 41.88 57.12 99 9.55 4.65 93.31
ATL 71 47 24 20 95 67 13.95 84.34 98.28 12.11 6.31 76.63
CHC 69 50 25 18 94 68 55.23 42.73 97.96 15.27 8.65 76.30
TBR 71 46 22 23 93 69 44.25 54.75 99 14.19 5.05 90.53
NYY 66 52 25 19 91 71 67.33 29.15 96.47 20.80 9.44 59.54
BOS 64 53 25 20 89 73 76.05 15.70 91.75 15.35 6.48 56.11
PHI 63 56 25 18 88 74 59.05 15.47 74.52 9.10 5.20 42.49
SDP 62 57 24 19 86 76 58.96 1.06 60.02 5.99 3.33 61.59
ARI 63 56 22 21 85 77 47.59 0.52 48.11 3.25 1.65 67.84
CHW 61 56 21 24 82 80 10.54 35.59 46.13 3.91 1.05 90.48
HOU 60 59 22 21 82 80 13.04 39.13 52.17 8.92 3.49 44.34
TEX 59 59 23 21 82 80 13.79 38.71 52.50 8.66 3.12 50.19
CLE 58 61 23 20 81 81 10.86 26.18 37.04 5.64 2.07 66.22
SEA 56 63 24 19 80 82 10.17 22.06 32.23 8.13 3.69 16.66
MIN 58 61 22 21 80 82 8.22 19.78 28.01 3.89 1.46 53.35
DET 58 60 21 23 79 83 7.36 18.27 25.64 2.94 0.83 19.09
PIT 58 62 21 21 79 83 5.97 0.03 6 0.51 0.21 46.83
TOR 56 63 23 20 79 83 22.71 0.18 22.88 5.14 2.34 15.12
BAL 57 61 21 23 78 84 15.54 0.22 15.77 2.31 0.85 20.03
STL 59 59 19 25 78 84 5.83 0.07 5.90 0.26 0.10 65.28
MIA 60 59 18 25 78 84 4.76 0.15 4.92 0.20 0.08 70.62
CIN 56 61 21 24 77 85 2.84 0.04 2.89 0.28 0.13 49.80
WSN 59 61 17 25 76 86 1.85 0.03 1.88 0.04 0.01 82.47
NYM 52 67 22 21 74 88 0.56 0.01 0.56 0.03 0.01 5.56
KCR 49 70 21 22 70 92 0.12 0.17 0.29 0.08 0.06 13.32
SFG 49 69 19 25 68 94 0.01 0 0.01 0.01 0 9.56
ATH 47 71 20 24 67 95 0.03 0.10 0.12 0.01 0 10.90
COL 46 72 17 27 63 99 0 0 0 0 0 46.71
LAA 45 73 17 27 62 100 0 0.01 0.01 0 0 19.37
Last Updated: August 10, 2026

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