MLB Projections

My MLB projections are generated using the Satchel projection model. I wrote a brief description of how the model works in an earlier post, and it has since grown into a more substantive project. The source code is available on my GitHub.

These projections are updated automatically every morning during the season around 10AM Eastern. The "Season Percentile" column grades how the team is projected to finish (in terms of total wins) relative to their opening day projections. A team that's roughly meeting expectations will have a percentile around 50. Those that dramatically over or underperform will have scores significantly higher and lower than 50, respectively.

To Date RoS Projections
Team W L W L W L Make Wild Card (%) Win Division (%) Make Playoffs (%) Win League (%) Win WS (%) Season Percentile
LAD 29 18 69 45 98 63 15.88 80.40 96.28 33.09 19.78 42.44
ATL 32 15 61 53 93 68 21.90 64.79 86.69 14.77 7.27 69.95
NYY 28 19 62 52 90 71 36.02 48.48 84.51 18.56 9.23 55.40
CHC 29 18 60 54 89 72 26.02 48.15 74.17 9.92 4.74 58.46
SDP 28 18 59 56 87 74 48.09 15.48 63.58 7.61 3.64 65.31
PHI 24 23 62 52 86 75 36.13 20.78 56.92 9.90 5.36 34.90
TBR 30 15 56 60 86 75 42.99 23.59 66.58 7.71 3.19 73.14
MIL 26 18 59 58 85 76 27.71 24.55 52.25 6.04 2.83 64.78
SEA 22 26 62 51 84 77 19.52 42.20 61.72 13.56 6.98 28.61
CLE 26 22 57 56 83 78 14.75 40.69 55.45 7.63 3.25 73.02
NYM 20 26 63 52 83 78 29.09 12.90 41.99 7.32 3.86 23.96
TOR 21 25 61 54 82 79 36.96 12.32 49.29 10.04 5.19 23.04
TEX 22 24 60 55 82 79 19.04 30.50 49.54 7.80 3.45 50.19
BOS 19 27 62 53 81 80 31.02 8.58 39.59 7.31 3.68 26.10
BAL 21 26 59 55 80 81 29.51 7.03 36.55 5.88 2.76 26
ARI 22 23 58 58 80 81 23.38 3.49 26.86 2.62 1.21 49.08
DET 20 27 60 54 80 81 14.62 24.39 39.02 6.58 3.12 21.82
PIT 24 23 56 59 80 82 19.39 9.82 29.21 2.80 1.30 50.88
STL 27 19 53 63 80 82 18.49 9.60 28.09 1.94 0.89 72.27
ATH 23 23 56 59 79 82 15.04 16.30 31.34 3.60 1.44 49.13
CIN 24 23 55 59 79 82 17.35 7.89 25.24 2.60 1.25 57.81
KCR 20 27 57 57 77 84 12.11 14.69 26.79 3.92 1.79 34.11
MIN 21 26 56 58 77 84 10.95 15.31 26.26 3.33 1.39 41.83
HOU 19 29 57 56 76 85 11.79 10.13 21.93 3.33 1.55 23.43
SFG 20 27 54 60 74 87 8.77 0.61 9.39 0.73 0.34 23.79
MIA 21 26 51 63 72 89 4.78 1.01 5.79 0.46 0.22 47.45
CHW 24 22 48 67 72 89 4.57 4.92 9.49 0.61 0.19 62.23
WSN 23 24 47 67 70 91 2.74 0.52 3.26 0.18 0.06 62.91
LAA 16 31 50 64 66 95 1.10 0.86 1.96 0.14 0.06 31.95
COL 18 29 45 69 63 98 0.26 0.01 0.27 0.02 0.01 46.71
Last Updated: May 19, 2026

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