MLB Projections

My MLB projections are generated using the Satchel projection model. I wrote a brief description of how the model works in an earlier post, and it has since grown into a more substantive project. The source code is available on my GitHub.

These projections are updated automatically every morning during the season around 10AM Eastern. The "Season Percentile" column grades how the team is projected to finish (in terms of total wins) relative to their opening day projections. A team that's roughly meeting expectations will have a percentile around 50. Those that dramatically over or underperform will have scores significantly higher and lower than 50, respectively.

To Date RoS Projections
Team W L W L W L Make Wild Card (%) Win Division (%) Make Playoffs (%) Win League (%) Win WS (%) Season Percentile
LAD 70 47 30 15 100 62 0.92 99.06 99.99 43.92 29.55 50.26
MIL 73 44 22 23 95 67 41.99 56.94 98.93 9.28 4.55 91.86
ATL 70 47 24 21 94 68 13.74 84.28 98.02 12 6.01 73.37
CHC 68 50 26 18 94 68 54.84 42.88 97.72 14.99 8.35 76.30
TBR 70 46 23 23 93 69 51.12 47.15 98.28 12.85 4.49 90.53
NYY 66 51 25 20 91 71 62.69 33.83 96.52 21.50 9.81 59.54
BOS 64 52 25 21 89 73 73.38 18.59 91.97 15.52 6.82 56.11
PHI 62 56 25 19 87 75 57.78 15.50 73.28 8.93 4.95 38.58
SDP 61 57 24 20 85 77 58.45 0.69 59.15 5.87 3.02 57.94
ARI 62 56 22 22 84 78 45.04 0.24 45.28 3.26 1.68 64.23
HOU 60 58 23 21 83 79 15.38 37.87 53.25 9.14 3.63 48.30
TEX 59 58 24 21 83 79 15.04 41.12 56.16 9.69 3.80 54.24
CLE 58 60 23 21 81 81 9.83 31.21 41.03 6.18 2.42 66.22
CHW 60 56 21 25 81 81 9.75 30.58 40.33 3.45 1.04 88.77
TOR 56 62 24 20 80 82 24.15 0.28 24.43 5.25 2.48 17.50
MIN 58 60 22 22 80 82 8.57 22.43 31 4.16 1.49 53.35
SEA 56 62 24 20 80 82 11.52 20.92 32.44 7.89 3.55 16.66
DET 57 60 22 23 79 83 5.90 15.47 21.38 2.40 0.76 19.09
PIT 58 61 21 22 79 83 9.39 0.08 9.47 0.71 0.36 46.83
STL 58 59 20 25 78 84 5.76 0.02 5.79 0.22 0.10 65.28
BAL 56 61 22 23 78 84 12.44 0.15 12.59 1.84 0.69 20.03
CIN 56 60 21 25 77 85 4.90 0.08 4.98 0.45 0.21 49.80
MIA 59 59 18 26 77 85 4.81 0.18 4.98 0.22 0.10 67.16
WSN 58 61 18 25 76 86 1.67 0.03 1.70 0.07 0.02 82.47
NYM 51 67 22 22 73 89 0.66 0.01 0.68 0.09 0.06 4.61
KCR 49 69 21 23 70 92 0.21 0.30 0.51 0.12 0.05 13.32
SFG 49 68 19 26 68 94 0.03 0 0.03 0 0 9.56
ATH 46 71 21 24 67 95 0.02 0.10 0.11 0.01 0 10.90
COL 46 71 18 27 64 98 0 0 0 0 0 50.76
LAA 45 72 18 27 63 99 0 0 0 0 0 22.31
Last Updated: August 09, 2026

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