MLB Projections

My MLB projections are generated using the Satchel projection model. I wrote a brief description of how the model works in an earlier post, and it has since grown into a more substantive project. The source code is available on my GitHub.

These projections are updated automatically every morning during the season around 10AM Eastern. The "Season Percentile" column grades how the team is projected to finish (in terms of total wins) relative to their opening day projections. A team that's roughly meeting expectations will have a percentile around 50. Those that dramatically over or underperform will have scores significantly higher and lower than 50, respectively.

To Date RoS Projections
Team W L W L W L Make Wild Card (%) Win Division (%) Make Playoffs (%) Win League (%) Win WS (%) Season Percentile
LAD 38 25 59 40 97 65 18.67 76.24 94.91 28.63 16.48 51.42
NYM 39 24 54 45 93 69 35.20 51.46 86.67 15.89 8.24 65.70
NYY 38 23 54 47 92 70 26.82 59.75 86.57 19.16 9.42 65.42
CHC 39 23 52 48 91 71 17.77 60.69 78.46 10.49 4.75 71.90
PHI 37 25 54 46 91 71 39.63 41.33 80.96 13.96 7.05 56.09
DET 41 23 49 49 90 72 30.34 45.06 75.40 9.31 3.75 78.88
HOU 34 28 53 47 87 75 21.26 40.38 61.64 9.81 4.70 54.02
MIN 34 28 53 46 87 74 31.92 33.91 65.83 11.86 5.64 50.77
TOR 33 29 53 46 86 75 38.12 19.84 57.96 10.32 5.11 52.15
SEA 32 29 54 47 86 76 20.39 41.32 61.71 11.54 5.78 49.23
SDP 35 26 50 51 85 77 39.89 11.20 51.09 5.50 2.61 58.70
TBR 33 29 51 49 84 78 31.99 12.16 44.14 5.93 2.93 59.70
SFG 35 28 49 50 84 78 34.58 7.31 41.88 4.27 1.89 64.18
ARI 31 31 53 47 84 78 33.11 5.25 38.36 4.90 2.49 48.06
MIL 34 29 49 50 83 79 19.98 16.33 36.31 4.06 1.99 59.38
STL 34 28 49 51 83 79 20.91 18.52 39.44 3.55 1.55 64.38
CLE 33 28 50 50 83 78 26.02 11.62 37.65 4.93 2.08 57.34
ATL 27 34 56 43 83 77 27.82 6.85 34.67 7.08 4.16 15.04
KCR 33 30 49 50 82 80 22.55 9.41 31.96 3.86 1.79 54.68
BOS 30 34 51 47 81 81 18.98 5.56 24.55 4.12 2.14 41.85
TEX 29 34 51 48 80 82 14.82 14.36 29.18 4.92 2.38 24.02
BAL 25 36 53 47 78 83 12 2.70 14.69 3.15 1.82 16.66
CIN 30 33 47 52 77 85 8.29 3.98 12.26 1.27 0.55 44.38
LAA 28 33 46 55 74 88 3.97 3.37 7.34 0.94 0.41 43.13
WSN 29 33 43 56 72 89 3.01 0.36 3.36 0.21 0.08 57.14
PIT 23 40 46 53 69 93 0.98 0.48 1.47 0.17 0.07 25.25
ATH 24 40 45 53 69 93 0.80 0.57 1.38 0.14 0.09 28.34
MIA 23 37 41 60 64 97 0.14 0.01 0.14 0.01 0.01 36.79
CHW 20 43 39 60 59 103 0.01 0 0.01 0 0 29.63
COL 12 50 39 61 51 111 0 0 0 0 0 12.49
Last Updated: June 06, 2025

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