MLB Projections

My MLB projections are generated using the Satchel projection model. I wrote a brief description of how the model works in an earlier post, and it has since grown into a more substantive project. The source code is available on my GitHub.

These projections are updated automatically every morning during the season around 10AM Eastern. The "Season Percentile" column grades how the team is projected to finish (in terms of total wins) relative to their opening day projections. A team that's roughly meeting expectations will have a percentile around 50. Those that dramatically over or underperform will have scores significantly higher and lower than 50, respectively.

To Date RoS Projections
Team W L W L W L Make Wild Card (%) Win Division (%) Make Playoffs (%) Win League (%) Win WS (%) Season Percentile
LAD 42 24 58 38 100 62 7.14 91.47 98.62 35.56 21.06 50.26
ATL 45 21 51 45 96 66 19.88 75.61 95.48 16.98 7.98 79.67
NYY 39 26 53 44 92 70 31.97 59.44 91.41 20.84 10.38 63.29
MIL 41 23 49 49 90 72 23.52 55.43 78.94 8.57 3.52 81.12
PHI 36 30 52 44 88 74 51.37 18.70 70.07 10.79 5.41 42.49
SEA 35 32 52 43 87 75 18.75 58.31 77.05 17.41 8.52 39.68
TBR 38 25 48 51 86 76 47.23 18.29 65.52 6.66 2.84 73.14
CHC 34 32 51 45 85 77 29.92 22 51.92 6.55 3.19 42.12
CLE 37 31 48 46 85 77 10.36 58.43 68.79 8.25 3.48 79.18
SDP 34 31 50 47 84 78 41.34 5.29 46.63 5.29 2.44 54.08
TOR 32 35 52 43 84 78 45.05 12.72 57.77 12.53 6.90 29.77
TEX 32 33 50 47 82 80 23.76 21.70 45.47 6.82 3.09 50.19
ARI 34 31 48 49 82 80 34.25 3.15 37.40 3.09 1.32 56.73
NYM 29 36 52 45 81 81 27.47 5.01 32.49 5.84 3.22 18.31
PIT 34 32 47 49 81 81 20.02 9.23 29.25 2.67 1.15 54.74
BAL 31 36 49 46 80 82 31.67 4.83 36.50 6.02 2.94 26
BOS 27 37 53 45 80 82 27.91 4.72 32.64 6 3.16 23.10
STL 35 28 45 54 80 82 18.80 8.53 27.33 1.79 0.56 72.27
HOU 31 37 48 46 79 83 17.53 10.48 28.02 3.73 1.81 33.03
CIN 31 34 47 50 78 84 12.54 4.81 17.36 1.77 0.91 53.73
DET 27 39 51 45 78 84 10.38 15.20 25.59 3.94 2.06 16.52
ATH 31 35 47 49 78 84 14.57 9.16 23.72 2.69 1.18 45.41
KCR 27 39 49 47 76 86 7.67 9.44 17.11 2.37 1.26 30.39
CHW 34 31 41 56 75 87 5.77 7.81 13.58 0.90 0.34 72.97
MIN 30 37 45 50 75 87 6.62 9.12 15.75 1.69 0.76 34.34
MIA 31 35 43 53 74 88 6.29 0.43 6.71 0.53 0.20 55.57
WSN 34 33 39 56 73 89 4.35 0.26 4.60 0.23 0.12 73.85
SFG 27 40 45 50 72 90 3.06 0.08 3.14 0.34 0.15 18.27
LAA 25 42 41 54 66 96 0.74 0.34 1.08 0.14 0.04 31.95
COL 24 42 38 58 62 100 0.04 0.01 0.05 0 0 42.37
Last Updated: June 09, 2026

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