MLB Projections

My MLB projections are generated using the Satchel projection model. I wrote a brief description of how the model works in an earlier post, and it has since grown into a more substantive project. The source code is available on my GitHub.

These projections are updated automatically every morning during the season around 10AM Eastern. The "Season Percentile" column grades how the team is projected to finish (in terms of total wins) relative to their opening day projections. A team that's roughly meeting expectations will have a percentile around 50. Those that dramatically over or underperform will have scores significantly higher and lower than 50, respectively.

To Date RoS Projections
Team W L W L W L Make Wild Card (%) Win Division (%) Make Playoffs (%) Win League (%) Win WS (%) Season Percentile
LAD 55 30 46 31 101 61 2.92 96.82 99.74 36.68 21.57 54.43
ATL 49 33 43 37 92 70 28.68 61.62 90.31 15.17 7.38 66.14
NYY 48 36 43 35 91 71 32.74 59.82 92.56 21.88 10.82 59.54
MIL 51 31 40 40 91 71 33.13 52.02 85.16 8.31 3.41 83.91
CHC 47 38 42 35 89 73 41.44 37.41 78.86 11.72 5.95 58.46
PHI 47 38 42 35 89 73 45.34 34.42 79.77 12.44 6.33 46.16
TBR 48 33 38 43 86 76 49.86 24.51 74.37 7.85 3.15 73.14
SEA 43 43 42 34 85 77 25.63 43.12 68.75 15.25 7.93 31.91
SDP 43 40 42 37 85 77 50.53 2.60 53.14 6.04 3 57.94
TEX 43 42 41 36 84 78 26.31 34.37 60.68 10.20 4.72 58.17
CLE 44 41 40 37 84 78 10.08 55.45 65.53 8.62 3.75 76.29
TOR 40 45 42 35 82 80 40.59 8.63 49.23 10.14 5.41 23.04
HOU 42 45 38 37 80 82 22.23 16.06 38.29 5.37 2.54 36.81
STL 43 38 37 44 80 82 18.62 4.58 23.20 1.40 0.56 72.27
PIT 43 42 37 40 80 82 18.13 4.13 22.26 2.09 0.90 50.88
ARI 42 42 38 40 80 82 23.12 0.56 23.69 2.07 0.98 49.08
BOS 37 46 43 36 80 82 28.43 4.05 32.48 5.96 3.05 23.10
MIA 45 40 34 43 79 83 16.18 2.54 18.72 1.19 0.47 73.65
BAL 39 47 40 36 79 83 23.56 2.99 26.55 4.35 2.20 22.77
CHW 44 39 34 45 78 84 8.64 14.65 23.29 1.29 0.38 81.93
MIN 41 45 36 40 77 85 7.62 12.63 20.25 2.10 0.85 41.83
DET 36 49 41 36 77 85 7.85 12.75 20.60 3.57 1.79 14.18
ATH 40 45 37 40 77 85 11.63 5.99 17.62 2.03 0.78 41.48
CIN 39 44 38 41 77 85 9.53 1.85 11.38 1.11 0.52 49.80
NYM 35 50 41 36 76 86 6.13 0.89 7.02 1.37 0.81 8.27
WSN 43 43 32 44 75 87 4.47 0.52 4.99 0.26 0.06 79.82
KCR 35 50 39 38 74 88 3.92 4.52 8.45 1.29 0.62 23.98
SFG 35 49 37 41 72 90 1.71 0.01 1.73 0.15 0.07 18.27
LAA 36 50 33 43 69 93 0.90 0.46 1.36 0.09 0.03 43.32
COL 33 52 31 46 64 98 0.05 0 0.05 0.01 0 50.76
Last Updated: June 30, 2026

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