MLB Projections

My MLB projections are generated using the Satchel projection model. I wrote a brief description of how the model works in an earlier post, and it has since grown into a more substantive project. The source code is available on my GitHub.

These projections are updated automatically every morning during the season around 10AM Eastern. The "Season Percentile" column grades how the team is projected to finish (in terms of total wins) relative to their opening day projections. A team that's roughly meeting expectations will have a percentile around 50. Those that dramatically over or underperform will have scores significantly higher and lower than 50, respectively.

To Date RoS Projections
Team W L W L W L Make Wild Card (%) Win Division (%) Make Playoffs (%) Win League (%) Win WS (%) Season Percentile
LAD 61 33 41 27 102 60 0.87 99.05 99.92 37.75 22.17 58.59
MIL 59 34 34 35 93 69 31.05 62.96 94.01 9.59 3.87 88.47
ATL 54 38 38 32 92 70 31.09 60.19 91.28 14.87 7.27 66.14
CHC 52 41 38 31 90 72 51.20 32.45 83.65 11.80 5.78 62.37
NYY 51 42 38 31 89 73 42.58 46.88 89.46 19.74 9.95 51.41
PHI 52 42 37 31 89 73 47.08 33.86 80.94 12.53 6.56 46.16
TBR 54 37 34 37 88 74 47.48 36.36 83.84 9.15 3.69 79.25
SEA 47 47 37 31 84 78 22.93 45.09 68.02 15.65 8.11 28.61
SDP 46 47 37 32 83 79 38.61 0.66 39.27 4.73 2.35 50.31
TEX 47 46 36 33 83 79 24.47 36.78 61.25 10.11 4.72 54.24
CLE 48 46 35 33 83 79 12.62 47.23 59.85 7.92 3.43 73.02
TOR 44 49 38 31 82 80 37.67 7.89 45.56 9.44 5.01 23.04
MIA 52 42 30 38 82 80 25.42 4.69 30.11 1.49 0.52 82.19
BOS 43 48 38 33 81 81 34.90 6.27 41.17 7.60 3.84 26.10
HOU 46 49 34 33 80 82 19.16 15.57 34.73 5 2.25 36.81
ARI 46 47 34 35 80 82 18.47 0.29 18.76 1.77 0.86 49.08
PIT 47 47 33 35 80 82 16.71 1.96 18.67 1.65 0.81 50.88
DET 43 50 37 32 80 82 12.23 24.74 36.97 6.15 2.96 21.82
STL 48 44 32 38 80 82 19.61 2.15 21.76 1.41 0.56 72.27
MIN 46 48 32 36 78 84 9.62 15.55 25.18 2.44 0.94 45.79
BAL 43 51 35 33 78 84 21.62 2.59 24.20 4.14 2.11 20.03
WSN 48 46 29 39 77 85 6.37 0.64 7.01 0.32 0.06 84.88
CHW 47 45 30 40 77 85 7.49 9.93 17.41 1.01 0.42 79.14
NYM 40 54 36 32 76 86 6.54 0.62 7.16 1.23 0.66 8.27
CIN 42 50 34 36 76 86 6.12 0.47 6.59 0.77 0.34 45.70
ATH 41 52 33 36 74 88 4.85 2.44 7.29 0.83 0.33 30.43
KCR 38 56 35 33 73 89 2.15 2.55 4.70 0.78 0.40 20.89
SFG 39 54 32 37 71 91 0.85 0.01 0.86 0.08 0.04 15.72
LAA 37 57 30 38 67 95 0.24 0.11 0.34 0.03 0.01 35.55
COL 38 57 27 40 65 97 0.02 0 0.02 0 0 54.76
Last Updated: July 10, 2026

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