MLB Projections

My MLB projections are generated using the Satchel projection model. I wrote a brief description of how the model works in an earlier post, and it has since grown into a more substantive project. The source code is available on my GitHub.

These projections are updated automatically every morning during the season around 10AM Eastern. The "Season Percentile" column grades how the team is projected to finish (in terms of total wins) relative to their opening day projections. A team that's roughly meeting expectations will have a percentile around 50. Those that dramatically over or underperform will have scores significantly higher and lower than 50, respectively.

To Date RoS Projections
Team W L W L W L Make Wild Card (%) Win Division (%) Make Playoffs (%) Win League (%) Win WS (%) Season Percentile
MIL 86 54 12 10 98 64 6.72 93.28 100 13.46 5.70 95.95
TOR 81 59 12 10 93 69 32.62 67.18 99.80 18.50 8.54 77.31
PHI 80 59 13 10 93 69 6.57 93.33 99.89 22.93 12.46 63.94
DET 81 60 11 10 92 70 0.45 99.31 99.76 14.55 5.89 84.33
LAD 78 61 14 9 92 70 27.01 71.69 98.70 23.77 13.91 31.65
CHC 80 60 12 10 92 70 92.80 6.72 99.52 11.54 5.91 75.08
NYY 77 62 13 10 90 72 76.53 20.97 97.50 18.91 9.41 57.80
BOS 78 63 11 10 89 73 83.28 11.83 95.10 11.12 4.96 71.94
SDP 76 64 13 9 89 73 68.08 27.65 95.73 12.58 6.45 73.38
HOU 77 63 12 10 89 73 17.66 73.40 91.06 18.32 9.26 61.78
NYM 75 65 12 10 87 75 80.57 6.67 87.24 13.79 7.56 41.73
SEA 73 67 12 10 85 77 41.73 17.98 59.72 10.26 5.01 45.38
TEX 72 69 11 10 83 79 24.16 8.55 32.71 5.38 2.77 34.16
KCR 70 69 12 11 82 80 11 0.40 11.39 1.55 0.74 54.68
SFG 71 69 11 11 82 80 10.24 0.62 10.87 1.06 0.50 56.39
CIN 70 70 11 11 81 81 4.64 0 4.64 0.56 0.26 60.49
ARI 70 71 10 11 80 82 1.21 0.03 1.24 0.15 0.10 32.21
TBR 70 69 10 13 80 82 7.07 0.02 7.09 0.60 0.24 44.03
CLE 69 69 11 12 80 81 5.04 0.29 5.33 0.72 0.22 45.51
STL 70 71 9 12 79 83 2.17 0 2.17 0.16 0.08 49.43
LAA 66 73 11 12 77 85 0.45 0.06 0.51 0.08 0.03 55.08
ATL 63 77 13 8 76 85 0 0 0 0 0 4.23
BAL 64 76 11 11 75 87 0.01 0 0.01 0 0 10.42
MIA 65 75 9 13 74 88 0 0 0 0 0 74.88
ATH 64 77 9 12 73 89 0 0 0 0 0 43.04
PIT 63 77 9 13 72 90 0 0 0 0 0 35.57
MIN 62 77 10 12 72 89 0.01 0 0.01 0.01 0 6.79
WSN 56 83 9 13 65 96 0 0 0 0 0 29.47
CHW 52 88 9 13 61 101 0 0 0 0 0 37.06
COL 39 101 8 14 47 115 0 0 0 0 0 5.64
Last Updated: September 04, 2025

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