MLB Projections

My MLB projections are generated using the Satchel projection model. I wrote a brief description of how the model works in an earlier post, and it has since grown into a more substantive project. The source code is available on my GitHub.

These projections are updated automatically every morning during the season around 10AM Eastern. The "Season Percentile" column grades how the team is projected to finish (in terms of total wins) relative to their opening day projections. A team that's roughly meeting expectations will have a percentile around 50. Those that dramatically over or underperform will have scores significantly higher and lower than 50, respectively.

To Date RoS Projections
Team W L W L W L Make Wild Card (%) Win Division (%) Make Playoffs (%) Win League (%) Win WS (%) Season Percentile
LAD 31 19 68 44 99 63 14.95 82.09 97.05 33.78 20.16 46.62
ATL 34 16 59 53 93 69 20.66 67.36 88.02 14.41 6.80 69.95
NYY 30 20 61 51 91 71 38.34 47.83 86.16 19.54 9.66 59.54
CHC 29 21 59 53 88 74 28.10 39.40 67.50 9.12 4.21 54.23
TBR 33 15 55 59 88 74 45.55 27.48 73.04 7.87 3.41 79.25
MIL 29 18 58 57 87 75 28.62 32.62 61.23 6.94 3.08 71.83
SDP 29 20 58 55 87 75 49.22 13.08 62.30 7.38 3.32 65.31
SEA 24 27 61 50 85 77 19.23 42.70 61.92 13.65 7.12 31.91
PHI 25 25 60 52 85 77 35.15 18.75 53.90 9.28 5 31.30
CLE 29 22 56 55 85 77 13.85 49.84 63.69 8.28 3.42 79.18
TEX 24 25 59 54 83 79 20.05 30.38 50.42 8.06 3.55 54.24
BOS 22 27 61 52 83 79 36.66 10.79 47.46 8.91 4.58 32.84
ARI 25 23 57 57 82 80 29.43 4.46 33.88 3.14 1.45 56.73
NYM 21 28 61 52 82 80 26.12 12.38 38.51 7.22 4.08 21.08
TOR 22 27 60 53 82 80 36.16 9.69 45.84 9.29 4.85 23.04
CIN 26 24 54 58 80 82 18.82 9.55 28.38 2.84 1.32 61.62
PIT 25 24 55 58 80 82 17.59 8.81 26.40 2.84 1.24 50.88
ATH 25 24 55 58 80 82 15.68 17.38 33.06 3.94 1.60 52.87
STL 28 20 52 62 80 82 17.33 9.62 26.96 1.84 0.76 72.27
DET 20 30 59 53 79 83 13.23 18.22 31.45 5.38 2.60 19.09
BAL 21 29 58 54 79 83 23.80 4.21 28.02 4.65 2.44 22.77
MIN 23 27 55 57 78 84 11.73 15.88 27.61 3.58 1.65 45.79
KCR 20 30 57 55 77 85 9.59 11.05 20.64 2.94 1.37 34.11
HOU 20 31 56 55 76 86 10.79 8.82 19.61 3.13 1.54 23.43
SFG 20 30 54 58 74 88 6.46 0.36 6.83 0.62 0.26 23.79
CHW 25 24 48 65 73 89 4.28 5 9.28 0.65 0.24 65.97
WSN 25 25 47 65 72 90 3.06 0.70 3.75 0.23 0.09 70.23
MIA 22 28 50 62 72 90 4.17 0.81 4.98 0.34 0.11 47.45
LAA 17 33 49 63 66 96 1.06 0.74 1.80 0.14 0.07 31.95
COL 19 31 45 67 64 98 0.32 0.01 0.33 0.02 0.01 50.76
Last Updated: May 21, 2026

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