MLB Projections

My MLB projections are generated using the Satchel projection model. I wrote a brief description of how the model works in an earlier post, and it has since grown into a more substantive project. The source code is available on my GitHub.

These projections are updated automatically every morning during the season around 10AM Eastern. The "Season Percentile" column grades how the team is projected to finish (in terms of total wins) relative to their opening day projections. A team that's roughly meeting expectations will have a percentile around 50. Those that dramatically over or underperform will have scores significantly higher and lower than 50, respectively.

To Date RoS Projections
Team W L W L W L Make Wild Card (%) Win Division (%) Make Playoffs (%) Win League (%) Win WS (%) Season Percentile
LAD 77 51 23 11 100 62 0.70 99.28 99.98 43.11 29.20 50.26
MIL 79 49 18 16 97 65 32.61 67.22 99.82 11.37 5.52 94.44
CHC 74 54 20 14 94 68 65.35 32.77 98.11 14.99 8.60 76.30
ATL 75 53 18 16 93 69 24.75 72.80 97.56 10.32 5.36 69.95
TBR 76 51 17 18 93 69 46.35 53.45 99.80 13.74 4.83 90.53
NYY 72 55 20 15 92 70 59.77 39.65 99.41 22.98 10.36 63.29
PHI 70 58 19 15 89 73 56.83 27.15 83.97 9.92 5.57 46.16
BOS 68 59 19 16 87 75 83.69 6.83 90.53 13.91 5.69 48.27
SDP 68 60 19 15 87 75 68.11 0.63 68.73 6.67 3.45 65.31
ARI 67 61 18 16 85 77 37.37 0.10 37.46 2.90 1.50 67.84
CHW 66 61 17 18 83 79 11.38 46.34 57.71 5.42 1.54 92.18
HOU 64 64 17 17 81 81 7.87 42.97 50.84 8.43 3.14 40.51
TOR 63 66 18 15 81 81 40.17 0.07 40.24 8.16 3.77 20.01
MIN 63 65 18 16 81 81 10.30 25.30 35.60 5.25 2.05 57.33
STL 66 63 15 18 81 81 7.52 0.01 7.54 0.29 0.12 75.46
TEX 63 65 17 17 80 82 7.80 32.24 40.03 6.37 2.46 42.30
CLE 62 66 18 16 80 82 10.73 19.68 30.41 5.08 2.02 62.41
PIT 63 66 16 17 79 83 3.69 0 3.69 0.24 0.10 46.83
SEA 60 68 19 15 79 83 6.25 24.78 31.03 7.51 3.49 14.20
MIA 64 64 14 20 78 84 2.17 0.05 2.22 0.10 0.03 70.62
DET 61 66 17 18 78 84 5.19 8.58 13.78 1.54 0.54 16.52
BAL 61 67 17 17 78 84 10.38 0.01 10.39 1.56 0.60 20.03
CIN 61 67 14 20 75 87 0.45 0.01 0.45 0.04 0.02 41.66
WSN 61 68 14 19 75 87 0.26 0 0.26 0.01 0 79.82
NYM 58 70 17 17 75 87 0.21 0 0.21 0.03 0.02 6.80
KCR 55 74 16 17 71 91 0.12 0.10 0.22 0.05 0.03 15.62
SFG 52 75 14 21 66 96 0 0 0 0 0 6.69
ATH 49 79 16 18 65 97 0 0.01 0.01 0 0 7.61
LAA 51 77 13 21 64 98 0 0.01 0.01 0 0 25.37
COL 50 77 14 21 64 98 0 0 0 0 0 50.76
Last Updated: August 21, 2026

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