MLB Projections

My MLB projections are generated using the Satchel projection model. I wrote a brief description of how the model works in an earlier post, and it has since grown into a more substantive project. The source code is available on my GitHub.

These projections are updated automatically every morning during the season around 10AM Eastern. The "Season Percentile" column grades how the team is projected to finish (in terms of total wins) relative to their opening day projections. A team that's roughly meeting expectations will have a percentile around 50. Those that dramatically over or underperform will have scores significantly higher and lower than 50, respectively.

To Date RoS Projections
Team W L W L W L Make Wild Card (%) Win Division (%) Make Playoffs (%) Win League (%) Win WS (%) Season Percentile
LAD 48 27 52 35 100 62 5.33 94.02 99.35 35.66 20.99 50.26
NYY 45 28 49 40 94 68 25.66 70.30 95.97 22.50 11.15 70.25
ATL 46 27 48 41 94 68 21.93 70.91 92.84 16.41 8.24 73.37
MIL 45 27 45 45 90 72 23 58.49 81.49 8.83 3.82 81.12
PHI 40 35 47 40 87 75 47.68 21.92 69.59 11.52 6.02 38.58
SEA 39 37 47 39 86 76 17.97 56.88 74.86 17.75 8.92 35.91
TBR 41 30 44 47 85 77 50.74 13.05 63.79 6.19 2.40 69.78
CLE 40 35 45 42 85 77 10.83 58.59 69.42 9 3.75 79.18
SDP 38 35 46 43 84 78 43.02 3.92 46.94 5.41 2.67 54.08
TOR 37 38 47 40 84 78 52.65 11.45 64.11 12.50 6.49 29.77
CHC 39 36 45 42 84 78 30.92 20.36 51.29 6.29 3 38.26
ARI 38 36 44 44 82 80 32.11 1.98 34.09 3.15 1.39 56.73
STL 40 33 41 48 81 81 21.32 8.77 30.09 1.81 0.76 75.46
NYM 34 41 47 40 81 81 24.40 5.47 29.88 5.52 3.10 18.31
TEX 35 39 45 43 80 82 20.76 17.34 38.09 5.48 2.42 42.30
BAL 35 41 45 41 80 82 31.57 3.28 34.86 5.37 2.65 26
PIT 38 37 42 45 80 82 17.77 6.75 24.52 2.19 1.01 50.88
HOU 35 41 44 42 79 83 17.23 11.58 28.82 4.19 1.88 33.03
ATH 37 38 42 45 79 83 17.56 13.74 31.30 3.71 1.59 49.13
CIN 35 38 44 45 79 83 13.63 5.62 19.25 1.85 0.89 57.81
BOS 29 43 49 41 78 84 21.20 1.92 23.12 4.59 2.40 17.63
DET 30 44 47 41 77 85 9.46 12.01 21.47 3.64 1.85 14.18
MIN 36 40 41 45 77 85 8.88 11.53 20.41 2.04 0.78 41.83
CHW 39 34 38 51 77 85 8.67 11.68 20.35 1.26 0.43 79.14
MIA 37 38 39 48 76 86 9 0.98 9.98 0.57 0.19 63.27
WSN 39 36 36 51 75 87 6.33 0.72 7.05 0.43 0.18 79.82
KCR 31 45 43 43 74 88 5.83 6.21 12.04 1.66 0.79 23.98
SFG 31 43 42 46 73 89 3.50 0.08 3.58 0.34 0.19 20.81
LAA 30 46 38 48 68 94 0.94 0.46 1.40 0.12 0.07 39.34
COL 28 47 35 52 63 99 0.05 0.01 0.06 0.01 0 46.71
Last Updated: June 19, 2026

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