MLB Projections

My MLB projections are generated using the Satchel projection model. I wrote a brief description of how the model works in an earlier post, and it has since grown into a more substantive project. The source code is available on my GitHub.

These projections are updated automatically every morning during the season around 10AM Eastern. The "Season Percentile" column grades how the team is projected to finish (in terms of total wins) relative to their opening day projections. A team that's roughly meeting expectations will have a percentile around 50. Those that dramatically over or underperform will have scores significantly higher and lower than 50, respectively.

To Date RoS Projections
Team W L W L W L Make Wild Card (%) Win Division (%) Make Playoffs (%) Win League (%) Win WS (%) Season Percentile
LAD 36 20 64 42 100 62 12.15 85.98 98.13 35.57 21.14 50.26
ATL 38 19 56 49 94 68 19.60 70.06 89.65 14.85 7.13 73.37
NYY 34 22 58 48 92 70 35.34 54.75 90.10 20.45 10.02 63.29
MIL 33 20 55 54 88 74 26.16 41.12 67.28 7.46 3.19 75.24
CHC 31 26 56 49 87 75 29.14 33.05 62.19 8.45 4.08 50.18
TBR 34 19 53 56 87 75 47.84 21.97 69.81 7.56 3 76.09
CLE 33 25 53 51 86 76 11.95 56.44 68.39 9.29 3.92 81.90
PHI 29 27 57 49 86 76 39.12 21.19 60.31 10.12 5.26 34.90
SEA 28 29 58 47 86 76 17.46 50.12 67.59 14.97 7.85 35.91
SDP 31 24 55 52 86 76 49.71 8.61 58.32 6.58 3.23 61.59
ARI 31 24 53 54 84 78 39.76 5.24 44.99 3.74 1.67 64.23
TOR 28 29 56 49 84 78 43.55 11.98 55.53 10.83 5.50 29.77
CIN 29 26 52 55 81 81 19.16 11.14 30.30 2.92 1.21 65.29
TEX 25 31 55 51 80 82 17.13 20.04 37.18 6.19 3.02 42.30
PIT 29 28 51 54 80 82 17.88 8.65 26.52 2.67 1.23 50.88
NYM 23 33 57 49 80 82 20.36 7.11 27.47 5.26 3 15.75
BOS 23 32 57 50 80 82 30.32 5.99 36.30 6.62 3.52 23.10
BAL 26 31 54 51 80 82 29.22 5.31 34.52 5.47 2.66 26
HOU 26 32 53 51 79 83 15.51 14.71 30.23 4.33 1.98 33.03
MIN 27 30 51 54 78 84 11.59 16.20 27.79 3.30 1.39 45.79
ATH 27 29 51 55 78 84 13.95 13.86 27.81 3.12 1.40 45.41
STL 29 25 49 59 78 84 13.58 6.04 19.61 1.32 0.51 65.28
DET 22 35 55 50 77 85 10.59 12.67 23.26 4.21 2.10 14.18
KCR 22 34 54 52 76 86 8.77 8.91 17.67 2.63 1.21 30.39
CHW 29 27 45 61 74 88 5.12 5.79 10.91 0.73 0.24 69.44
MIA 26 31 47 58 73 89 5.06 0.83 5.90 0.41 0.17 51.36
WSN 29 28 44 61 73 89 4.02 0.82 4.84 0.26 0.08 73.85
SFG 22 34 50 56 72 90 4.21 0.18 4.38 0.41 0.17 18.27
LAA 22 35 46 59 68 94 1.65 1.26 2.90 0.29 0.14 39.34
COL 20 37 42 63 62 100 0.10 0 0.10 0.01 0.01 42.37
Last Updated: May 29, 2026

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