MLB Projections

My MLB projections are generated using the Satchel projection model. I wrote a brief description of how the model works in an earlier post, and it has since grown into a more substantive project. The source code is available on my GitHub.

These projections are updated automatically every morning during the season around 10AM Eastern. The "Season Percentile" column grades how the team is projected to finish (in terms of total wins) relative to their opening day projections. A team that's roughly meeting expectations will have a percentile around 50. Those that dramatically over or underperform will have scores significantly higher and lower than 50, respectively.

To Date RoS Projections
Team W L W L W L Make Wild Card (%) Win Division (%) Make Playoffs (%) Win League (%) Win WS (%) Season Percentile
LAD 68 49 27 18 95 67 24.71 73.62 98.34 26.82 15.15 43.27
MIL 72 44 22 23 94 67 29.42 67.81 97.22 9.35 3.74 91.03
PHI 67 49 26 20 93 69 18.91 77.42 96.33 19.32 10.04 63.94
CHC 67 49 25 20 92 69 61.25 30.38 91.62 11.38 5.41 75.08
TOR 68 50 23 21 91 71 36.74 56.72 93.46 14.34 6.30 70.86
DET 67 51 23 21 90 72 7.75 79.74 87.50 11.27 4.73 78.88
SDP 65 52 25 20 90 72 63.41 25.46 88.87 13.79 7.16 76.48
HOU 65 52 25 20 90 72 38.48 47.41 85.89 18.21 9.34 65.56
SEA 65 53 25 19 90 72 41.28 45.15 86.44 18.36 9.71 65.14
NYM 63 54 26 19 89 73 56.45 22.51 78.95 15.04 8.31 49.80
BOS 65 53 23 21 88 74 52.96 20.97 73.94 9.77 4.42 68.62
NYY 62 55 26 19 88 74 55.21 22.01 77.22 15.55 8.03 49.76
TEX 60 58 24 20 84 78 30.03 7.13 37.16 5.98 2.94 37.95
CLE 61 55 22 23 83 78 17.83 11.48 29.31 3.02 1.21 57.34
CIN 61 57 22 22 83 79 19.79 1.35 21.14 2.02 0.96 67.88
SFG 59 58 22 23 81 81 13.26 0.86 14.12 1.21 0.47 52.48
KCR 58 59 23 22 81 81 10.29 7.87 18.15 2.23 1.03 50.73
STL 59 59 21 23 80 82 9.47 0.46 9.93 0.58 0.23 53.12
TBR 57 61 21 23 78 84 4.98 0.27 5.26 0.53 0.21 36.61
LAA 56 61 21 24 77 85 2.15 0.30 2.46 0.32 0.14 55.08
ARI 56 61 21 24 77 85 2.25 0.06 2.31 0.33 0.18 22.46
MIN 55 61 22 23 77 84 1.74 0.92 2.65 0.35 0.16 16.30
ATL 50 67 25 19 75 86 0.47 0.03 0.50 0.12 0.08 3.29
MIA 57 60 17 28 74 88 0.58 0.04 0.62 0.03 0.01 74.88
BAL 53 64 21 24 74 88 0.54 0.03 0.56 0.08 0.03 8.66
ATH 52 67 19 24 71 91 0.01 0.01 0.01 0 0 35.12
PIT 51 67 19 25 70 92 0.04 0.01 0.04 0 0 28.52
WSN 46 70 18 27 64 97 0 0 0 0 0 25.94
CHW 42 75 18 27 60 102 0 0 0 0 0 33.23
COL 30 86 17 29 47 115 0 0 0 0 0 5.64
Last Updated: August 10, 2025

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