MLB Projections

My MLB projections are generated using the Satchel projection model. I wrote a brief description of how the model works in an earlier post, and it has since grown into a more substantive project. The source code is available on my GitHub.

These projections are updated automatically every morning during the season around 10AM Eastern. The "Season Percentile" column grades how the team is projected to finish (in terms of total wins) relative to their opening day projections. A team that's roughly meeting expectations will have a percentile around 50. Those that dramatically over or underperform will have scores significantly higher and lower than 50, respectively.

To Date RoS Projections
Team W L W L W L Make Wild Card (%) Win Division (%) Make Playoffs (%) Win League (%) Win WS (%) Season Percentile
LAD 58 39 38 27 96 66 11.15 86.86 98.01 31.41 18.54 47.31
CHC 57 39 34 31 91 70 29.70 55.99 85.69 11.50 5.48 71.90
NYM 55 42 36 29 91 71 38.34 47.90 86.24 16.32 8.71 57.88
DET 59 38 32 33 91 71 9.75 80.42 90.18 12.06 4.84 81.58
PHI 55 41 36 30 91 71 35.91 51.18 87.08 15.42 8.09 56.09
HOU 56 40 34 32 90 72 24.46 62.09 86.55 14.66 6.71 65.56
NYY 53 43 36 30 89 73 42.71 37.36 80.07 17.08 8.53 53.67
TOR 55 41 34 31 89 72 40.74 42.59 83.34 15.10 7.28 63.80
MIL 56 40 32 33 88 73 37.54 32.23 69.77 7.12 3.23 77.20
SEA 51 45 35 31 86 76 36.88 27.91 64.79 11.52 5.64 49.23
SDP 52 44 33 33 85 77 44.84 7.02 51.87 5.02 2.25 58.70
BOS 53 45 32 32 85 77 38.99 12.50 51.50 7.44 3.48 57.12
SFG 52 45 32 33 84 78 38.27 5.06 43.34 4.29 2.10 64.18
STL 51 46 32 33 83 79 28.11 9.12 37.23 3.13 1.43 64.38
TBR 50 47 33 32 83 79 29.25 6.58 35.83 4.60 2.03 55.94
MIN 47 49 35 30 82 79 20 11.48 31.48 5.67 2.78 31.50
TEX 48 49 34 31 82 80 21.58 7.47 29.05 5 2.48 30.77
ARI 47 50 34 31 81 81 16.46 1.06 17.52 2.69 1.48 36.11
CIN 50 47 30 35 80 82 11.68 2.62 14.30 1.22 0.51 56.69
CLE 46 49 33 33 79 82 9.74 3.28 13.02 1.88 0.80 41.78
ATL 42 53 37 28 79 81 7.54 0.91 8.46 1.80 1.16 7.56
KCR 47 50 32 33 79 83 10.23 4.81 15.04 1.98 0.88 42.75
BAL 43 52 35 31 78 83 7.83 0.97 8.79 1.73 0.95 16.66
LAA 47 49 31 35 78 84 7.63 2.51 10.14 1.26 0.57 59.22
MIA 44 51 27 39 71 90 0.20 0.01 0.21 0.03 0.01 64.69
ATH 41 57 29 35 70 92 0.20 0.02 0.22 0.03 0.01 31.86
PIT 39 58 31 34 70 92 0.24 0.03 0.27 0.06 0.03 28.52
WSN 38 58 28 37 66 95 0.01 0 0.01 0 0 33.22
CHW 32 65 25 40 57 105 0 0 0 0 0 22.58
COL 22 74 25 41 47 115 0 0 0 0 0 5.64
Last Updated: July 15, 2025

Follow @andersonfrailey.bsky.social on Bluesky