MLB Projections

My MLB projections are generated using the Satchel projection model. I wrote a brief description of how the model works in an earlier post, and it has since grown into a more substantive project. The source code is available on my GitHub.

These projections are updated automatically every morning during the season around 10AM Eastern. The "Season Percentile" column grades how the team is projected to finish (in terms of total wins) relative to their opening day projections. A team that's roughly meeting expectations will have a percentile around 50. Those that dramatically over or underperform will have scores significantly higher and lower than 50, respectively.

To Date RoS Projections
Team W L W L W L Make Wild Card (%) Win Division (%) Make Playoffs (%) Win League (%) Win WS (%) Season Percentile
LAD 69 40 32 21 101 61 0.41 99.57 99.98 38.02 22.82 54.43
ATL 64 45 29 24 93 69 15.75 81.54 97.28 16.30 8.31 69.95
MIL 67 41 26 28 93 69 36.73 60.51 97.24 9.45 4.03 88.47
CHC 62 47 29 24 91 71 55.33 38.29 93.61 13.60 6.83 66
NYY 61 48 29 24 90 72 51.30 42.27 93.56 20.79 10.35 55.40
TBR 64 44 26 28 90 72 51.25 42.31 93.56 10.76 4.17 84.57
BOS 57 51 29 25 86 76 61.48 12.42 73.89 12.29 5.90 44.31
PHI 57 52 29 24 86 76 54.05 17.44 71.48 10.21 5.49 34.90
TEX 55 54 29 24 84 78 14.92 47.76 62.68 12.34 5.82 58.17
ARI 57 52 26 27 83 79 38.12 0.18 38.30 2.89 1.23 60.50
CLE 56 54 27 25 83 79 11.31 41.74 53.05 7.38 3.12 73.02
SDP 55 54 28 25 83 79 46.69 0.26 46.95 5.32 2.82 50.31
SEA 53 57 29 23 82 80 16.50 30.53 47.02 11.59 6.02 22.18
HOU 55 55 26 26 81 81 14.31 21.39 35.70 5.07 2.17 40.51
BAL 53 56 28 25 81 81 33.56 2.44 36 6.54 3.17 29.20
CHW 57 51 23 31 80 82 9.55 20.91 30.45 1.76 0.48 86.78
MIN 55 55 25 27 80 82 9.88 18.68 28.56 3.31 1.23 53.35
PIT 55 55 25 27 80 82 18.14 0.69 18.82 1.51 0.70 50.88
DET 51 58 28 25 79 83 8.28 17.59 25.87 4.07 1.80 19.09
STL 54 55 24 29 78 84 10.30 0.28 10.59 0.60 0.27 65.28
MIA 55 55 23 29 78 84 8.48 0.57 9.05 0.60 0.24 70.62
TOR 50 59 28 25 78 84 16.63 0.56 17.19 3.64 2.05 12.73
CIN 51 57 26 28 77 85 6.80 0.24 7.04 0.76 0.32 49.80
WSN 55 55 22 30 77 85 6.07 0.40 6.47 0.24 0.12 84.88
NYM 47 63 28 24 75 87 2.67 0.05 2.71 0.46 0.26 6.80
KCR 46 64 27 25 73 89 0.85 1.07 1.92 0.38 0.18 20.89
SFG 47 62 24 29 71 91 0.47 0 0.47 0.06 0.03 15.72
ATH 45 64 24 29 69 93 0.20 0.32 0.52 0.08 0.05 15.37
LAA 42 67 22 31 64 98 0.01 0 0.01 0 0 25.37
COL 42 67 21 32 63 99 0.01 0 0.01 0 0 46.71
Last Updated: July 31, 2026

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