MLB Projections

My MLB projections are generated using the Satchel projection model. I wrote a brief description of how the model works in an earlier post, and it has since grown into a more substantive project. The source code is available on my GitHub.

These projections are updated automatically every morning during the season around 10AM Eastern. The "Season Percentile" column grades how the team is projected to finish (in terms of total wins) relative to their opening day projections. A team that's roughly meeting expectations will have a percentile around 50. Those that dramatically over or underperform will have scores significantly higher and lower than 50, respectively.

To Date RoS Projections
Team W L W L W L Make Wild Card (%) Win Division (%) Make Playoffs (%) Win League (%) Win WS (%) Season Percentile
LAD 20 11 78 53 98 64 20.87 73.73 94.60 30.25 17.54 42.44
ATL 22 9 70 61 92 70 18.18 63.85 82.03 15.07 7.20 66.14
NYY 20 11 72 59 92 70 34.24 49.02 83.26 19.14 9.88 63.29
SEA 16 16 72 58 88 74 21.58 48.16 69.75 15.33 7.89 43.54
CHC 19 12 69 62 88 74 23.14 44.10 67.24 9.85 4.71 54.23
SDP 19 11 68 64 87 75 46.12 15.20 61.31 7.58 3.65 65.31
TOR 14 16 71 61 85 77 38.66 17.46 56.12 10.82 5.66 33.28
DET 15 16 69 62 84 78 13.06 42.25 55.32 8.54 4.05 35.16
ARI 16 13 67 66 83 79 34.16 7.22 41.39 4.15 1.85 60.50
BAL 14 15 69 64 83 79 33.61 12.80 46.41 7.39 3.75 36.38
TEX 15 16 68 63 83 79 23.99 25.42 49.41 7.43 3.55 54.24
BOS 12 19 70 61 82 80 32.16 10.52 42.69 7.67 4 29.42
PHI 10 19 72 61 82 80 25.39 15.88 41.27 7.81 4.16 21.99
CIN 19 11 63 69 82 80 21.39 19.20 40.59 3.89 1.57 69.03
TBR 18 12 64 68 82 80 31 10.21 41.21 4.71 2.02 58.79
MIL 15 14 67 66 82 80 21.24 17.69 38.92 4.78 2.23 52.98
NYM 10 20 72 60 82 80 23.13 15.75 38.88 7.46 4.20 21.08
ATH 16 14 65 67 81 81 19.82 15.74 35.57 4.17 1.75 56.83
PIT 16 15 64 67 80 82 17.95 12.39 30.35 3.38 1.47 50.88
SFG 13 16 67 66 80 82 24.07 3.79 27.86 3.10 1.31 45.01
KCR 12 18 67 65 79 83 11.92 19.68 31.59 4.51 2.13 41.80
MIN 13 18 65 66 78 84 10.38 17.41 27.79 3.31 1.40 45.79
CLE 16 16 62 68 78 84 10.67 17.87 28.54 2.80 1.15 54.51
HOU 11 19 66 66 77 85 14.34 9.50 23.83 3.50 1.56 26.53
STL 17 13 60 72 77 85 12.18 6.62 18.80 1.50 0.57 61.52
MIA 15 16 60 71 75 87 8.91 3.71 12.62 0.98 0.41 59.37
WSN 14 17 55 76 69 93 2.30 0.80 3.10 0.16 0.08 59.26
CHW 14 17 55 76 69 93 2.02 2.79 4.81 0.38 0.14 50.16
LAA 12 20 56 74 68 94 2.51 1.19 3.70 0.29 0.11 39.34
COL 14 17 51 80 65 97 0.97 0.06 1.03 0.03 0.01 54.76
Last Updated: April 30, 2026

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