MLB Projections

My MLB projections are generated using the Satchel projection model. I wrote a brief description of how the model works in an earlier post, and it has since grown into a more substantive project. The source code is available on my GitHub.

These projections are updated automatically every morning during the season around 10AM Eastern. The "Season Percentile" column grades how the team is projected to finish (in terms of total wins) relative to their opening day projections. A team that's roughly meeting expectations will have a percentile around 50. Those that dramatically over or underperform will have scores significantly higher and lower than 50, respectively.

To Date RoS Projections
Team W L W L W L Make Wild Card (%) Win Division (%) Make Playoffs (%) Win League (%) Win WS (%) Season Percentile
MIL 90 58 7 7 97 65 3.28 96.72 100 14.37 6.25 95.03
PHI 88 60 8 6 96 66 0 100 100 26.82 14.24 74.46
TOR 85 62 8 7 93 69 19.88 80.09 99.98 19.46 8.77 77.31
CHC 84 63 8 7 92 70 96.68 3.28 99.96 11.92 5.92 75.08
DET 84 64 7 7 91 71 0.13 99.48 99.61 14.68 5.94 81.58
LAD 82 65 9 6 91 71 23.86 75.61 99.48 20.46 11.80 28.18
NYY 82 65 9 6 91 71 82.34 16.46 98.80 18.59 9.71 61.67
BOS 81 67 8 6 89 73 82.66 3.44 86.10 10.01 4.54 71.94
HOU 80 68 8 6 88 74 37.48 39.73 77.20 14.29 7.42 58.01
SEA 80 68 8 6 88 74 37.10 43.96 81.07 13.48 6.78 57.31
SDP 80 68 8 6 88 74 74.29 23.66 97.95 13.09 6.83 69.78
TEX 78 70 8 6 86 76 35.64 16.31 51.95 8.95 4.54 45.51
NYM 76 72 8 6 84 78 62.39 0 62.39 10.13 5.64 30.89
CLE 76 71 7 7 83 78 3.94 0.48 4.43 0.44 0.20 57.34
CIN 74 73 8 7 82 80 10.95 0 10.95 1.02 0.48 64.34
SFG 75 72 7 8 82 80 26 0.73 26.72 1.96 0.80 56.39
KCR 74 74 7 7 81 81 0.77 0.03 0.80 0.10 0.03 50.73
ARI 73 75 6 8 79 83 1.26 0.01 1.26 0.14 0.04 28.93
STL 72 76 6 8 78 84 1.30 0 1.30 0.10 0.07 45.48
TBR 72 75 6 9 78 84 0.06 0 0.06 0 0 36.61
BAL 69 78 7 8 76 86 0 0 0 0 0 12.20
LAA 69 79 7 7 76 86 0 0 0 0 0 50.95
ATL 65 82 9 5 74 87 0 0 0 0 0 2.56
MIA 69 79 5 9 74 88 0 0 0 0 0 74.88
ATH 68 80 6 8 74 88 0 0 0 0 0 47.23
MIN 65 82 6 8 71 90 0 0 0 0 0 5.51
PIT 64 84 6 8 70 92 0 0 0 0 0 28.52
WSN 61 86 5 9 66 95 0 0 0 0 0 33.22
CHW 57 91 5 9 62 100 0 0 0 0 0 41.15
COL 41 107 5 9 46 116 0 0 0 0 0 4.43
Last Updated: September 13, 2025

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